Portfolio Updates

Portfolio Update July 2022 – Green Shoots But Will The Rain Come?

Calvin Lo

Markets kicked off H2 with a bang with S&P 500 powering 7% higher in July. Our portfolios benefitted from this nice little bump, after many months of pain. Feels like little green shoots peeking out of the parched soil. The big question is, will the rain come and drive the rally higher or will this turn out to be a sucker’s rally?

We got US Q2 GDP print which came in below expectations and in negative territory. That makes it two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction which qualifies as a technical recession. However, initial GDP numbers are notoriously inaccurate and takes about a month before we get the actual GDP number. Recession in the US is also only confirmed by the US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). I shared my thoughts in more detail on how I plan to manage my investments and finances as recession looms in this post here.

As I mentioned previously, I’m not rushing to deploy cash especially since the overall trend is still bearish despite the recent rally. I’m not convinced that this rally can be sustained, and I’m preparing for the possibility of a reversal back down. Inflation hasn’t officially peaked (although commodity prices have), the Fed is still on rate hike mode, Russia-Ukraine still at it, China is in the dumps, and recently House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s much followed visit to Taiwan might trigger more US-China tensions.

After only being allocated $18K out of $40K in Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) for July issue, I was allocated only a paltry $9K for August issue. I explain why decided to put part of our emergency funds into SSB in this post, and a subsequent update post on why demand for SSB is so high. So, I still have a balance of $13K which I’ll be applying for the September issue with slightly lower yield of 2.8%.

Source: MAS

See my portfolio value, holdings, and strategy on my Portfolio page.

Family Portfolio

  • Value as at end July: S$170.6K
  • July performance: +10.4% vs SPX +6.9% vs NDX +9.5%
  • YTD performance: -21.0% vs SPX -14.6% vs NDX -21.9%
  • All-time performance (since Aug 2016): -8.8% (-6.8% including dividends)
  • July dividends: S$0 (-100% yoy)
  • Bought: VT, QQQ, VNQ, ARKK, HST, SCHD (new)
  • Sold: None
Family Portfolio holdings as at 3rd Aug 2022

Automated purchases through FSMOne is finally working well in July. I switched from eGIRO to scheduled transfers from my DBS account and it works well so far. My current set up is that every month S$2K will be invested into these 4 ETFs: VT, QQQ, ARKK, HST.

See my previous posts on FSMOne: Automating Your Investments With FSMOne and FSMOne RSP Update

Since VNQ is not one of the RSP ETFs offered on FSMOne, I still had to make a manual purchase but using SCB Online Trading. I’ve also set up scheduled transfers for Syfe Equity100 and REIT+ portfolios at $200/month each.

See my review of Syfe REIT+ here and comparison vs VNQ here.

Lastly, I’ve initiated a brand new position in the Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF (SCHD). Basically, I wanted to replace my exposure in dividend-payers which I’ve sold off quite a bit of over the past 1-2 years. I shared my reasons more in-depth in this post.

Personal Portfolio

  • Value as at end July: S$35.7K
  • July performance: +23.8%
  • YTD performance: -7.5%
  • All-time performance (since July 2020): +21.7%
  • Bought: TSLA, PLTR
  • Sold: None
Personal Portfolio holdings as at 3rd Aug 2022

Tesla (TSLA) was up a whooping 30% for the month, carrying the portfolio. Tesla’s Q2 earnings reported on 20th July was the main catalyst that triggered the huge rally. Tesla is showing resilience in the midst of supply chain constraints and macro headwinds. Production/deliveries and financials were down due to Shanghai lockdowns, but Tesla still managed to beat expectations.

See my breakdown of Tesla’s Q2 earnings here and why I don’t plan to buy more TSLA stock just yet here. Also, see my investment thesis on TSLA here.

My hedges in SQQQ and SARK are down because of the rally, but I’m keeping them on and may also add on some since I believe this rally might fizzle out.

How did your portfolio perform in July?

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not professional financial advisor nor do I work in the finance industry. Anything I write here is purely my personal opinion. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing into anything. All investments come with associated risks. Best to consult a financial advisor if you’re still unsure.

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