Portfolio Updates

Portfolio Update September 2022 – Keep Calm and DCA

Calvin Lo

Bearish sentiment continued to dominate in September. Both stocks and bonds got destroyed. Almost every currency other than USD (luckily SGD too) is getting destroyed. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are down 9.6% and 10.6% for the month.

The Fed is staying the course on aggressive rate hikes which I think should slow economic growth eventually as intended. Consensus appears that the Fed might not be able to engineer a soft landing. Even Fed chair J Powell admitted that a soft landing would be challenging (I think these guys usually understate so as not to cause panic).

With interest rates rising, I’m comfortable holding slightly more cash while prices continue to decline. I’m also looking into bonds and CPF since stocks are in bear market. I’ve deployed another $10K into Singapore Savings Bonds (SSB) Sep issuance and will probably deploy another $10K into Oct issuance since rates have increased. These $20K are actually my parents’ spare cash, since I haven’t maxed out my $200K entitlement. I might also roll my earlier SSB into upcoming instances of rates continue to rise.

That said, I think the best thing about bear markets are the opportunities to pick up stocks at lower prices. If you have a long term horizon (>10 years), your chances of profits goes up as prices go down. Most importantly, don’t panic sell unless you’re still holding onto rubbish speculative stocks. If you’re holding high-quality stocks or broad market ETFs, you should be fine. With that in mind, I’m still maintaining my dollar-cost-averaging (DCA) into core holdings.

See my previous posts on SSB:

See my portfolio value, holdings, and strategy on my Portfolio page.

Family Portfolio

  • Value as at end September: S$155K
  • September performance: -5.6% vs SPX -9.6% vs NDX -10.6%
  • YTD performance: -22.1% vs SPX -25.2% vs NDX -33.5%
  • All-time performance (since Aug 2016): -9.3% (-7.3% including dividends)
  • September dividends: S$115 (+4% yoy)
  • Bought: VT, QQQ, SCHD, NVDA, AAPL
  • Sold: None
Family Portfolio as at 5th October 2022

I added to existing positions in Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL) since valuations have fallen quite a bit. Both companies were hit by expectations of lower demand partly due to higher inflation.

Nvidia is facing multiple headwinds including dismal earnings, lowered guidance, slower demand in gaming and crypto mining, export ban to China, etc. However as we move past the pandemic, I think demand for Nvidia products will normalise. I’m still bullish on Nvidia as their leading edge chips will continue to be needed to power gaming, data centres, AI, autonomous driving, etc.

Apple was also hit pretty bad when they lowered production targets. The recently unveiled products also had a pretty lacklustre reception, with no new breakthrough developments just incremental improvements. However, I’m still very bullish on Apple due to their super sticky ecosystem (which I’m neck deep stuck in). Since I’m spending so much on Apple products every year, I might as well buy their stock too.

S-REITs have also taken a beating recently so I might take a bigger bite out of REITs either by adding to my existing 2 REITs FLCT (SGX:BUOU) and ART (SGX:HMN) or pump more into Syfe REIT+.

I’m currently at around 19% cash (weightage increases as value of invested assets decrease) but looking to reduce that to 10% gradually over the coming months.

No change to automated purchases of S$2K through FSMOne into 4 ETFs – VT, QQQ, ARKK and HST. Scheduled transfers for Syfe Equity100 and REIT+ portfolios at $200/month each will also continue.

See my previous posts on FSMOne: Automating Your Investments With FSMOne and FSMOne RSP Update.

See my reviews of Syfe REIT+ and Syfe Core Equity100.

Personal Portfolio

  • Value as at end September: S$32.1K
  • September performance: +5.8%
  • YTD performance: -18.7%
  • All-time performance (since July 2020): +21.7%
  • Bought: TSLA
  • Sold: TSLA, SARK
Personal Portfolio as at 5th October 2022

I’ve been trading Tesla (TSLA) stock a bit more actively in recent months, due to the increased volatility. Whenever TSLA price increases in tandem with bear market rallies, I tend to trim to take some profits and subsequently backfill these positions when the price falls back down. As long as the macro environment stays bearish and uncertain, and Tesla FUD continues, I think TSLA stock likely won’t surge yet like it did back in 2020/2021. I’m still very much bullish on Tesla’s prospects, more so after AI Day 2 (if you haven’t watched it, here’s Tesla Daily’s 23-minute supercut video).

See my investment thesis on TSLA here.

Since the market was back to around June lows by the end of Sep, I took the opportunity to buy some TSLA back and sell off SARK. I think ARKK has either bottomed or is close to bottoming out, so the upside for SARK might not be worth the risk anymore. I’m still holding onto SQQQ though, since Big Tech are still holding up relatively well compared to the rest of the market so there’s quite a bit of risk there should macro deteriorate further, e.g. we fall into deep recession.

Did you make any moves in September?

Follow me on Facebook, Telegram, Twitter and Youtube.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not professional financial advisor nor do I work in the finance industry. Anything I write here is purely my personal opinion. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing into anything. All investments come with associated risks. Best to consult a financial advisor if you’re still unsure.

Download my FREE Ebook: How to Start Investing in Stocks for Beginners

For more investing tips, visit my Guide page.

For more investing resources, see my Referrals page.

Disclosure: This post may contain affiliate links and I may get a commission when you click on the links or open an account through the links, at no additional cost to you. I only recommend products or services that I have personally tried and have found useful.