October started off pretty well with the stock market rebounding from its decline in September. However, the rally was short-lived and reversed course around mid month. We got a brutal sell off that pushed markets below the lows hit just at the start of the month.
One of the worst hit stocks was Tesla (TSLA) due to demand and margin concerns after reporting its Q3 earnings way below expectations. Since TSLA is a heavyweight in our portfolios, performance was hit pretty hard.
Markets continue to sell off due to spiking bond yields, especially at the long end of the yield curve. The great bond sell off (coined by myself) dragged most other assets along with it, including stocks and REITs. Surprisingly, crypto was pretty resilient so crypto bulls were slowly crawling out of the mud.
Inflation continues to be sticky, mainly due to spiking oil prices caused by geopolitical tensions (Israel-Hamas war erupting and Russia-Ukraine war persisting). The US economy and labor market is still holding up, although there have been reports of consumer savings being eroded by inflation. The Fed just had their FOMC last night 1 Nov, and held rates steady. As for China, the situation seems dire with no end in sight yet for the property crisis.
On the fixed income front, December SSB has just been announced with a very attractive 3.4% average 10Y yield, the second highest yield in recent years. T-bill yields have likewise risen in tandem with global bond yields, with cut-off yield coming in at 3.95% at the last auction for 6-month T-bill on 26 Oct 2023. Next auction is on 8 Nov 2023, one to keep an eye on.
With government bond yields rising, fixed deposit rates are no longer attractive unless banks raise them soon. I’ll be checking FD rates and updating my Fixed Income Tracker over coming days, so keep a lookout. Alternatively, robot advisors Syfe and StashAway are offering 3.8% guaranteed yield for Syfe Cash+ Guaranteed and StashAway Simple Guaranteed.
Read: StashAway Simple Guaranteed Update: More Tenure Options, Highest Yield 3.8% For 1-Month Tenure
Read: Syfe Cash+ Guaranteed Review: New Option For Short-Term Cash at 3.7% Yield (to be updated)
See also my SSB tracker.
On a personal note, we’ve just completed our minor home renovation so there’s been a huge outflow. I’ll be rebuilding my emergency fund slowly while contributing to investments at a lower rate in upcoming months until the hole is refilled. With markets down so much, it’s hard to watch the opportunity to double down and buy more stock at lower prices. Also, the first half of November we’ll be travelling overseas so I won’t have much time to blog or monitor the markets.
See my Portfolio page for more details on my portfolio value, holdings, and strategy.
Family Portfolio
- Value as at end Oct: S$220K
- Oct performance: -1.9% vs SPX -1.2% vs NDX -0.3%
- YTD performance: +15.2% vs SPX +10.8% vs NDX +35.0%
- All-time performance (since Aug 2016): -0.2% (+1.9% including dividends)
- Oct dividends: S$80 (-34% yoy)
- Bought: VT, QQQ, ARKK, SGX:HST
- Sold: None
No purchases besides the usual RSP into ETFs with FSMOne, since we’re short on cash as mentioned above. Tesla (TSLA) has been a huge drag on performance, resulting in underperformance vs S&P 500.
Read also: Automating Your Investments With FSMOne
No additional lump sum added to Syfe portfolios last month, just the usual DCA. Syfe managed portfolios is currently valued at $14.7k, down from $15.5k last month due to mounting losses in REIT+.
No change to regular monthly contributions of $200 into each of the Core Equity100 and REIT+ portfolios. Around $5.3k more to go to qualify for Black Tier ($20k) which comes with a lower 0.5% annual management fee vs the current Blue Tier rate of 0.65% before GST.
Read my reviews of Syfe Income+, Syfe REIT+, and Syfe Core Equity100.
Personal Portfolio
- Value as at end Oct: S$52K
- Oct performance: -14.8%
- YTD performance: +42.8%
- All-time performance (since July 2020): -3.0%
- Bought: TSLA
- Sold: TSLA, PLTR
Tesla (TSLA) was the main drag in performance this month, with the stock down a massive -18% for the month. Palantir (PLTR) was also down -7% for the month but is a much smaller weight in the portfolio now, so doesn’t affect much. Disney (DIS) was flat for the month.
Tesla’s decline was not unexpected being a high beta stock, but it still hurts. I’ve been averaging down as the stock sells off, and will continue to do so as long as sentiment in the stock remains weak. Tomorrow Palantir will be reporting so I’m monitoring that closely. As for Disney, hopefully they’ll be green shoots soon before I considering going in heavy.
Read my investment thesis on TSLA here.
How did your portfolio perform in October and what are your plans for November?
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not professional financial advisor nor do I work in the finance industry. Anything I write here is purely my personal opinion. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing into anything. All investments come with associated risks. Best to consult a financial advisor if you’re still unsure.
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