Portfolio Updates

Portfolio Update December 2021 – Ending the Year on a Whimper

Calvin Lo

What?! 2021 is already over?! Felt like it flew by. Maybe there’s a bit of a feeling like we’re in limbo. Although we have almost reached a fully vaccinated population, we’re still living under social distancing restrictions and the overhang of omicron variant.

Markets are also in somewhat of a limbo. Seems to me that the market can’t decide where to head next. Is the economy strengthening as we look forward to opening up? Or will there be continued weakness as new covid variants emerge? Also feels like we’re stuck in a cycle of reopening hopes being dashed my rising infections again and again. Let’s hope things change for the better in 2022.

In the stock market, investors were holding their breath in anticipation of a Santa rally. Hold breath until face blue but finally the Santa rally came, only to fizzle out towards the end of the year. Growth and tech got pummelled (and continue to be so far in the new year) and there seemed to be signs of the value rotation returning.

What most market watchers seem to agree on is that inflation will continue in 2022 and confidence in at least one rate hike is high. Supply chain shortages might also be prolonged especially in semiconductors as durable goods production ramps up.

Investors also seem to be managing their expectations for 2022, saying returns won’t be as good as 2021. Looking at the returns of S&P 500 for the past 30 years in the chart below, that seems highly probable. So far every time S&P 500 returned 25+% in a year, the next year is usually lower (but can still be very good).

Source: MacroTrends

I’ve also made some corrections to how I calculate portfolio performance because I realised my annual performance was wrong. It’s still a bit of a mess so this may not be the last correction.

Anyway, December was definitely not a good month with all 3 portfolios recording negative returns. In months like these, I feel like I should just sell everything and put all the money into an S&P 500 index fund.

See my portfolio holdings and strategy on my Portfolio page. I’ve included portfolio pie charts that update in real-time.

Family Portfolio

  • December performance: -2.5% vs SPX +5.0% vs NDX +3.9%
  • 2021 performance: +7.3% vs SPX +28.8% vs NDX +28.6%
  • All-time performance (since Aug 2016): +7.7% (+10.0% including dividends)
  • December dividends: S$44 (-51% yoy)
  • 2021 dividends: $1,208
  • Bought: MSFT, FB, TSLA, NVDA, QQQ, PYPL, SE
  • Sold: GRAB, TDOC, BABA, AMZN, TLT

Lots to talk about this month also because it’s the last update of the year.

This month, I didn’t initiate any new positions, only added to existing ones Microsoft (MSFT), Facebook (FB), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), PayPal (PYPL) and Sea Ltd (SE). I exited 4 positions Grab (GRAB), Alibaba (BABA), Amazon (AMZN), iShares 20+ Year Bond Treasury ETF (TLT) and trimmed Teladoc Health (TDOC). I’ve reduced my holdings to 19 stocks and 5 ETFs.

MSFT, FB, TSLA, NVDA are my best performing stocks so I’m adding to them. the fundamentals and secular tailwinds for these companies are strong so I’ve no qualms adding. Only thing is I have to look past the rich valuations and take a long-term view.

PYPL and SE have crashed hard and fast to pretty attractive levels so I’ve DCA into them as well. I’m restraining my bargain-hunting mentality though because I think there may be more pain to come for these growth names especially for SE which is still unprofitable.

Nothing much to discuss about QQQ there, just buying on dips.

GRAB tanked after merger close (formerly AGC), but luckily I managed to escape unscathed because I got cold feet and sold right before the close date. It was a small position anyway so even if I held it wouldn’t have impacted the portfolio much.

BABA was finally let go after the pain became too much to bear. I just totally gave up on this name causing me heart pain week after week. There’s just too much uncertainty with the China economy now and there’s still risk of further regulatory crackdown from the Chinese government.

AMZN has gone nowhere for more than a year and has lagged other FAANG stocks badly. My conviction has definitely waned since I don’t use Amazon services much anyway and I bought at a relatively high price. I was also secretly rooting for new CEO to split the stock but I realised this is a silly reason to hold the stock. AMZN is still a pretty good business and it might surge after consolidating for so long, but I just wasn’t willing to wait.

TLT was sold in anticipation that rising interest rates will cause TLT price to decline. I’m pretty convinced that inflation will force the Fed to hike interest rates, just a matter of time.

Lastly, TDOC was trimmed because growth seemed to be slowing although that was expected after the boost from the pandemic. I’m still bullish on the prospects of telemedicine, but I’m not sure if TDOC will continue to be the leader. Also I’m not in the US so I can’t experience their services first-hand, which is very different from just reading about it.

Busy month but nothing much to show for it since performance was poor. On the bright side, I had a fun holiday season with the family and didn’t have to worry much about the portfolio since I’ve increased our exposure to ETFs.

Personal Portfolio

  • December performance: -11.3%
  • 2021 performance: +34.3%
  • All-time performance (since July 2020): +79.9%
  • November dividends: None
  • Bought: TSLA, PLTR
  • Sold: TSLA, TWTR, DIS, HYLN, SOFI, AAPL

I was trading Tesla (TSLA) a little this month, maybe a bit more than I would’ve liked. For the month, I’m net -2 shares, so I still have scope to buy more TSLA if the price dips. I would like to buy at the $900-$950 range, so hopefully the stock dips into that territory before making the next leg higher. I don’t think TSLA will make new highs until late 2022 based on my half-baked technical analysis, so I’m not going to chase even if it moves up. I think (and hope) they will be more chances to accumulate at lower prices when Tesla FUD inevitably hits. Feels like TSLA is now in a relatively optimistic mood.

I’ve added a bit more of Palantir (PLTR) on price weakness since it’s trading at 52-week lows. However, I’m less confident than before that PLTR will bounce back anytime soon because of the spectre of rising interest rates and its relatively high valuation.

Performance was poor also because both TSLA and PLTR were down -7.7% and -11.8% respectively for the month. Since I’m left with these 2 holdings after selling off all the rest, the portfolio performance will mirror the performance of these 2 stocks.

This month was a time of housekeeping for the new year. AAPL was sold because it was just a free share issued by moomoo, which I didn’t intend to hold in this portfolio anyway. TWTR and DIS were short-term trades gone wrong. HYLN and SOFI were mistakes from the SPAC craze era (seemed so long ago now).

If you have not signed up for moomoo account before and want to get your free AAPL share + SGD 40 Stock Cash Coupon Bundle (T&Cs apply, offer ends 31 January 2022 at 09:59 SGT), you can sign up with my referral link here. Take note that you will need to fund your account with at least SGD2,700 for your first deposit to qualify for the rewards.

Social Portfolio

  • December performance: -4.17%
  • 2021 performance: -2.52%
  • Check out my eToro account for trade activity: https://etoro.tw/3rLL9tX

So far my copy trades with jaynemesis and KoraTrades have not been performing as well. jaynemesis is at breakeven but KoraTrades is down 10% due to her crypto heavy portfolio.

I’ve closed most of my positions in this portfolio and looking to find just a handful of stocks I can focus my trading on.

If you’re interested in opening an eToro account, you can through my referral link here.

How has your portfolio performed in 2021? Hope your portfolio fared better. Wishing you great returns in the year ahead!

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I am not professional financial advisor nor do I work in the finance industry. Anything I write here is purely my personal opinion. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing into anything. All investments come with associated risks. Best to consult a financial advisor if you’re still unsure.

For more investing resources, see my Referrals page.

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